Solar Activity Forecasts
Aurora forecast & Aurora Alerts:
Sun Spots
Will the next “sun explosion” hit the planet Earth?
When we understand this chart, we understand how reliable the Aurora alarms can be.
At the center, you have our star, the Sun, and the gases on its surface are spinning. When an explosion happens, the gases are projected out to space in an eliptical way. The other dots are the other planets (Earth in yellow). You cna then see roughly if our planet wil be hit by the mass ejection or not, and when (On top left of the chart).
Aurora belt
Real time Aurora Oval measured by satellites. From NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center.
Tromso is perfectly located under the aurora belt making making it one of the best cities to experience the Northern Lights.
CLOUD COVERAGE
We often see the northern lights even on cloudy nights. Therefore our tours run regardless of the cloud coverage.
History
“Last night northern lights show was this strong.“
Check here the intensity level of the aurora boreal last night in Tromso. This graph shows last seven days K-indices.
Magnetogram
This graph shows current month magnetogram readings from Tromsø.
Predicted indices shown below are derived solely based on the solar wind data using models developed through Artificial Neural Networks using the Boyle Index as a base function. The vertical green lines indicate the most recent value. Kp=0 means a very quiet period while Kp=9 means extremely severe activity!
Geomagnetic Storms
Check here if Tromsø is right under the Aurora belt or not. If we are, you may be missing it, as you are looking at your phone right now 🙂 Otherwise, get ready as a solar storm may be approaching. Even though this seems like a simple way to follow on the Aurora Forecast, remember that its really hard to predict what is going to happen in the next hours. This is why we believe taht an Aurora Alerts or Aurora Alarm apps do not really make a good justice on this.
Kp Index
This is what most people talk about. The Kp is one of the main indexes and on this graph you can see a bit of the past as well as a forecast / probability, for next days. Kp is not the only index that you should watch.
Full detailed data
Solar wind
Coronal Holes
Enjoy the beauty of our star! This is the latest “portrait” taken by the satellites. The brighter areas are the most probable areas to “explode” and couse the next storm. (Check the first graph to see the CME travelling through space)
Sun Spots
This graph shows a simplified version of the Coronal holes. They are all identified with a unique ID in case you want to track it.
Flare Probability
And finally the forecast. Here the scientists try to predict an “explosion”.
Sky cameras
Tromsø (NO/TGO)
Sky cameras
Skibotn (NO/TGO)
Any Queries?
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